There are a surprising number of competent pitchers on the eight-game main slate this evening, which may compel players to find cheap starters in order to stack expensive hitters against some of the weaker options in the field.
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Joe Musgrove, PIT at ARI ($8,500): Musgrove encountered his first setback of the season last week against the Dodgers but has been fantastic overall in his three starts with the Pirates, compiling a 1.89 ERA with 17 strikeouts in 19 innings. Some may be hesitant to select a pitcher against the D-Backs at Chase Field but it is worth noting that the squad hasn’t performed all that well in Arizona, as they are a bottom-5 team at home according to wOBA.
GPP Fade: Patrick Corbin, ARI vs. PIT ($11,200): Corbin is having a great season for the D-Backs but hasn’t been the best pitcher for DFS purposes, as he has put up less than 20 DraftKings points in six of his last 10 starts. The Pirates may not be the team to buck that trend, as they have tallied a .176 ISO against southpaws while striking out less than 20 percent of the time.
Cheap GPP Consideration: Ryan Yarbrough, TB vs. TOR ($5,600): It may surprise some to learn that Yarbrough’s cutter has yielded the second highest RAA in the league among pitchers who have thrown at least 50 innings (9.8). The Blue Jays have registered the third lowest RAA against the pitch this season while also posting just a .301 wOBA against left-handed pitching.
Buster Posey, SF at MIA ($4,000): Opposing starter Wei-Yin Chen has been blasted by right-handed hitters in 2018, surrendering a .553 slugging percentage and a .392 wOBA over 26.1 innings. Posey has walked more often than he has struck out against his opposite hand this season while notching a .219 ISO through 64 at-bats.
Mitch Moreland, BOS at BAL ($4,600): Dylan Bundy has showcased one of the better sliders in the league this season (6.3 RAA) but a poor fastball (-6.6 RAA) has contributed to a .370 wOBA and .490 slugging percentage against lefties. Moreland seemingly hasn’t stopped hitting since taking over as the team’s starting first baseman. He now owns a staggering .431 wOBA against right-handed pitching over 120 at-bats.
Matt Carpenter, STL vs. SD ($3,300): Carpenter seems to be rounding into form after a slow start to the season, as he finished the month of May with a .286 ISO and a .404 wOBA in 91 at-bats. Conversely, Jordan Lyles has hit a rough patch of late and has now allowed at least four runs in three of his last four starts.
Jose Ramirez, CLE at CWS ($5,600): I wouldn’t recommend the most expensive hitter on the slate without good reason. In this instance, that reason is the 21.6 RAA he has logged against the fastball, which rates as the highest mark in the league. Lucas Giolito’s heater has registered a -8.7 RAA and he has allowed a .521 slugging percentage to left-handed hitters in 30.1 innings in 2018.
Tim Anderson, CWS vs. CLE ($3,800): Carlos Carrasco has thrown the ball well in 2018 but has still allowed a .430 slugging percentage and a 39 percent hard contact rate to right-handed hitters in 47.1 innings. Anderson has tallied a .188 ISO against same-handed pitchers and should be able to swipe a bag or two if he can find his way on base, as Carrasco has allowed eight stolen bases in 13 starts this season.
Michael Brantley, CLE at CWS ($4,800): Brantley has hit righties hard in 2018, notching a .225 ISO and a .394 wOBA through 151 at-bats. Prospective owners may be wise to roster as many left-handed hitters as possible due to the fact that Giolito is the owner of a 7.56 xFIP against his opposite hand this year.
Lorenzo Cain, MIL vs. CHC ($4,200): Cain has done tremendous damage against left-handed pitching this season, as evidenced by the .261 ISO and .479 wOBA he has tallied over 46 at-bats. Surface numbers tell us that Jose Quintana has done well on the road but a look at his peripherals reveals a 4.24 xFIP away from Wrigley Field in 34.1 innings.
Andrew McCutchen, SF at MIA ($4,000): McCutchen gets the nod as our second selection against Chen due to his performance against the fastball (10.9 RAA) over 268 plate appearances this year. It is also worth mentioning that McCutchen has tallied a 47.5 percent hard contact rate over 82 at-bats against lefties.